CQ Propagation Editor challenges revised solar cycle predictions

CQ magazine’s Propagation Editor is challenging the accuracy of the newest predictions on Solar Cycle 24.

The revised prediction, issued in late May by a panel of solar experts, suggests a weak sunspot cycle with a peak in 2013. But CQ Propagation Editor Tomas Hood, NW7US, is asking “How Credible Are These ‘Experts’?”
 
In an online commentary posted on the CQ magazine website, Hood notes that this same group of so-called “experts” has issued multiple predictions for this cycle already, all of which they now say are wrong, and asks why we should believe they’re right this time.
 
“How much credibility should we grant to the panel of solar researchers and scientists that again releases a speculative prediction of the new Solar Cycle?” Hood asks, noting that NASA’s lead representative on the panel says “it turns out that none of our models were totally correct.”
 
Hood points out that, while the Sun itself is millions of years old, scientists have been tracking solar activity for just a few hundred years. “In my view,” he says, “it is pretty arrogant to postulate that mankind has any real understanding and handle on what the Sun might do next.”
 
“No one can postulate with any credibility just how intense the new cycle will be, because there's no direct correlation between this solar minimum and any regular pattern of past minimums,” Hood notes, adding, “If none of the models are totally correct, how are they making this current prediction with such dismal expectations? I'm not holding my breath in favor of supporting any of the predictions at this point.”
 
He also points out that there are already signs of “an awakening Solar Cycle 24,” and encourages hams to “enjoy the unique propagation opportunities currently presenting themselves during this quiet phase,” and to “prepare now for whatever the sun will do by honing your radio skills…”
 
The complete text of Hood’s commentary is on the CQ website and may be accessed by clicking the “online commentary” link on the lefthand side of the home page