Propagation Forecast Bulletin
From Tad Cook, K7RA

Just last week we saw no sunspots. Then on November 13 we saw sunspot 822 peek around the eastern side of the visible solar disk.

By November 15 we could see that it is a big one. Today, November 18, the spot should be squarely facing earth. The daily sunspot number rose from 26 on Monday, November 14, to 32, 58 and 62 on November 17.

Daily solar flux is based on the 2.8 GHz energy received from the sun at an observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, Canada at local noon, which is 2000z. The observatory has a parabolic dish antenna aimed at the sun, and they produce three readings per day at 1800, 2000 and 2200z, although the 2000z measurement is the only
number recorded as the official daily solar flux. This number is related to the area and number of sunspots facing earth, but does not track it precisely. But it is more objective than counting sunspots and measuring their area, which is how the daily sunspot number is derived, and it has the advantage of being able to take readings on overcast days.

For the past two days, November 16 and 17, the three daily readings were 93.2, 94, 96, 97.1, 100.5 and 103.2. The 94 and 100.5 readings taken at local noon each day were the official solar flux numbers for those days. You can see the trend is up. Currently as this is written early Friday, November 18, the interplanetary magnetic field is pointing south, which means the earth is vulnerable to any flares
from sunspot 822.

This weekend is ARRL SSB Sweepstakes Contest. Sunspot numbers and solar flux are both expected to remain relatively high, with solar flux remaining around 100 for the next week. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low over the weekend, with the planetary A index for November 18-21 at 5, 5, 7 and 12. Geophysical Institute Prague
predicts quiet conditions on November 24, quiet to unsettled November 20, 22 and 23, and unsettled November 18, 19 and 21.

Tom Coates, N3IJ wrote to ask about getting the WWV geo-alert messages via the internet. The alerts are transmitted at 18 minutes after each hour, and you can also read the latest copy at http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/wwv.txt.
If you want it via telephone, call 303-497-3235. The broadcasts are updated every three hours, after 0000z, 0300z, 0600z, 0900z and so on.

Osten Magnusson, SM5DQC sent in the observation that the lower the solar flux, the better 160 meters seems to be. On November 11 he mentioned that "Around October 25 the 160 meter band was as good as it can be, now it's down again as sunspots have increased. Maybe it's not scientific, but this is my experience!"

We received several interesting and informative emails concerning 10 meters. 10 meters seems to be open over various paths quite often, although with the solar activity lower many people are not showing up and operating. Those that do operate sometimes observe interesting propagation.

Joe Murray, K0VTY of Ithaca, Nebraska said he heard LU6GB working NL7Z on 28.49 MHz at 2012z on November 6. When Joe worked LU6GB, signals were S9 both ways for 30-40 minutes. Of course, it helps that Joe runs a 7 element homebrew monoband Yagi that he built over
40 years ago. He had it az-el mounted in 1965 with stacked 11 element 2 meter Yagis for satellite work, back when only the 2 and 10 meter bands were used for OSCAR. On November 13 Joe wrote again to say that from 1805-1820z that day he worked Brazil and Chile on 10 meters with solid signals.

Joe Living, W3GW/KH6 lives on Maui, and he listens to 10 meters every Saturday. He hears many mainland U.S. stations that cannot hear each other, and often copies beacon stations. On November 12 at 1900z he heard the K5AB beacon in Texas at S5. On September 5 he worked George, KA9YCB in Southern Illinois. George was using a tiny indoor magnetic loop antenna. On November 13 Joe worked K7LEK in Nevada on 28.4 MHz, then KD6AXR in Fullerton, California broke in, and of course he and K7LEK could not hear each other. Joe mentioned that he would like to monitor 28.31 MHz every Saturday, SSB or CW,
for readers of this bulletin wishing to check the 10 meter path to Maui.

Most interesting this week was an email from Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ of Stillwater, Oklahoma. Martin was amazed on the morning of November 14 at 0200 CST local time (0800z) to record the KQ2H repeater system in New York on 29.62 MHz FM. The repeater faded out, then began coming in again around 0530 local time with New York
drive time traffic, probably from its 2 meter link. By 0600 CST it was full-quieting. He tuned around the rest of 10 meters and the 11 meter band, and heard no other activity, except the tail-end of an FM signal briefly on 29.64 MHz. Note that all this activity was over night, for most of the time dark at both ends of the path.

I contacted Alex Muzyka, KQ2H who said the 10 meter transmitter is running 1300 watts, and the antenna is a vertical at 300 feet on a tower in Wurtsboro, New York, about 1950 feet above mean sea level.

Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA commented that this propagation could be due to F2 region ionization from geomagnetic field activity. Martin thought perhaps this was very early winter E-skip.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
An archive of past bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.

Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16 were 0, 0, 11, 16, 26, 32 and 58 with a mean of 20.4. 10.7 cm flux was 77.9, 78.6, 83.1, 87.8, 92.4, 100, and 94, with a mean of 87.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 5, 10, 14, 10, 4 and 3 with a mean of 6.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 7, 12, 7, 5 and 1, with a mean of
5.1.